Friday, February 20, 2009

Kaplow!

And thus begins the great epic.

I propose a study of the way doomsdayism affects (or does not) the rise and fall of civilizations. Because, in my estimation, as long as the world has existed, there have been people predicting that it soon will not.

I'm not so much proposing a study of the eschatological theories themselves (though maybe that's necessary to truly get to the heart of the matter), but instead how the cyclic rise and fall of these theories coincides with that of populations around the world. I'm envisioning a time series chart like the following:

Though our chart will superimpose some sort of population/civilization measure. Is population enough? Moreover, how is eschatological prevalance measured? Is it something arbitrary like the 'Doomsday Clock?' Most likely, we will have to rely on imperfect census measures - extrapolating from them what we will, being careful to avoid the errs of wanton application of causal theory (as the Flying Spaghetti Monster so artfully demonstrated):

And what of the coarseness of our data set? Regionality will certainly come into play, but then, collapse of one region could have ripple effects that in turn bring down others. In that event, the prominence of a doomsday theory may well extend beyond its reach. The world may then end for those who didn't even know it was supposed to.

It seems like a relevant study with such topics being all the rage these days - what with economic meltdowns, various climate crises, and the ever-present threat of technological singularity.(1)

Kardashev scale projections ranging from 1900 to 2100

No comments:

Post a Comment